The WRAP Decision-Making Process
WRAP:
Four villains of decision making:
Widen your perspective:
Avoid a narrow frame
Think about opportunity cost
Vanishing options test
Multitrack
Consider more than one option simultaneously
“this AND that” as opposed to “this OR that”
Find someone who has solved your problem
Reality test your assumptions:
Consider the opposite
Ask disconfirming questions
Zoom out, zoom in
Trust averages over instinct
Add “close-up” information
Ooch
Run small experiments to test your theories
Attain distance before deciding:
Overcome short term emotion
10/10/10
Beware of mere exposure and loss aversion
Look at your situation from an observer’s perspective
What would you tell your best friend to do?
Honor your core priorities
Long term goals, aspirations
What kind of person do you want to be?
The goal is not to eliminate emotion but to honor the emotions that count.
Prepare to be wrong:
Bookend the future
The future is not a point but a range of possibilities.
Best and worst case scenario
Set a tripwire
Cap risk
Quiet your mind until the trigger is hit
Four villains of decision making:
- Narrow framing
- Confirmation bias
- short term emotion
- overconfidence in our predictions
Widen your perspective:
Avoid a narrow frame
Think about opportunity cost
Vanishing options test
Multitrack
Consider more than one option simultaneously
“this AND that” as opposed to “this OR that”
Find someone who has solved your problem
Reality test your assumptions:
Consider the opposite
Ask disconfirming questions
Zoom out, zoom in
Trust averages over instinct
Add “close-up” information
Ooch
Run small experiments to test your theories
Attain distance before deciding:
Overcome short term emotion
10/10/10
Beware of mere exposure and loss aversion
Look at your situation from an observer’s perspective
What would you tell your best friend to do?
Honor your core priorities
Long term goals, aspirations
What kind of person do you want to be?
The goal is not to eliminate emotion but to honor the emotions that count.
Prepare to be wrong:
Bookend the future
The future is not a point but a range of possibilities.
Best and worst case scenario
Set a tripwire
Cap risk
Quiet your mind until the trigger is hit